摘要
为了做好突发性局地暴雨的临近预报和预警,利用常规天气图、BJ-ANC系统的北京区域雷达拼图和VDRAS风场、地面自动站、风廓线雷达的水平风垂直廓线、卫星云图等多种探测资料,对2009年7月13日和2008年8月14日北京城区的两次突发性强对流局地暴雨天气的影响系统和中尺度系统进行了对比分析,提炼了城区突发对流性暴雨预报预警的预报着眼点。分析表明:两个个例在水汽输送条件、中低层的动力条件、冷空气侵入等方面有有利的天气尺度条件;暴雨之前卫星云图上介于南北两个系统之间的晴空区、对流系统的发生发展与1 km以下的中尺度辐合中心的联系等方面有相似之处;而在雷达回波的移向移速、各层VDRAS风场配置及风廓线雷达资料中水平风垂直廓线结构等方面有差异。通过分析研究,进一步提高了运用高时空分辨率资料作短时突发性对流性暴雨的预报能力,这对于主汛期的预报和服务工作有十分重要的作用。
In order to make the sudden rainstorm nowcasting and early warning more timely and accurately, using the detection data including conventional synoptic analysis,Beijing radar regional mosaic and VDRAS（variational Doppler radar analysis system） retrieved wind field,AWS（auto weather stations）, wind profile data,and satellite images,we have conducted the comparative analysis on synoptic scale and mesoscale systems of two severe convective rainstorm events,which happened in Beijing area on August 14,2008 and July 13,2009,and put the forecast focus in the rainstorm nowcasting and early warning in Beijing area.It shows that the two rainstorm events have many similarities,e.g.in the good synoptic scale conditions,such as moisture condition,the dynamic condition at the middle and low levels,and the intrusion of the cold air,the clear areas between the pre-storm southern and northern mesoscale systems of satellite images,the occurrence and development of mesoscale systems being associated with mesoscale convergence below 1 km ASL.And on the other hand,they have many differences in the direction and speed of the movement of the radar echoes,the structures of VDRAS wind fields in the lower troposphere,the structures of vertical wind profiles.It is proved that by the study and analysis,the nowcasting ability of severe convective rainstorm can be promoted using high space resolution detection data and there is important significance to the forecasting service in the main flooding season.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期281-290,共10页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项200906039
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2011-001)
2007年中国气象局大气探测重点开放实验室课题"X波段双线偏振天气雷达在灾害天气预瞽中的应用"共同资助
