摘要
中国国有经济改革自2000年起迈入"战略性调整"阶段;同时,中国经济出现了由"高位波动"到"波幅收窄"的平稳化趋势。基于以上特征事实,文章引入国有、民营两类厂商经营目标的异质性,对标准RBC模型进行了扩展,模拟结果不仅解释了2000年以前中国经济的"高位波动"现象,又较好地解释了2000年以来出现的"波幅收窄"新特征。理论分析和模型模拟都表明,改革开放以来,国有经济改革深入推进所导致的国有经济双重经营目标(利润目标和规模目标)相对权重的变化,是导致2000年前后中国经济波动特征发生转折性变化的重要冲击源。其政策性启示是,继续推进已处于攻坚阶段的国有经济改革,对实现中国宏观经济平稳性增长具有重要意义。
Since the year 2000,the reform of China ’ s state-owned economy(ROCSOE) has entered into the stage of ' strate gic adjustment ';at the same time,a stabilized trend from ' high volatility ' to ' volatility narrowing ' has appeared in China ’ s economy.Based on the above stylized facts,we have expanded the RBC model by introducing the heterogene ity of the business objectives between the state-owned enterprises and the private enterprises.The simulations of the expanded RBC model not only can explain the phenomenon of the ' high volatility ' of China ’ s economic fluctuations before 2000,but also succeeded in better explaining the new characteristic of the ' volatility narrowing ' that has ap peared since 2000.Both the theoretical analysis and the simulation results indicate that,since the policies of the re form and opening-up have been carried out,the changes,resulted from the furthering of the ROCSOE,in the relative weighting on the dual management objectives(profit targets and scale indicators) of the state-owned economy,have been an important source of the phase change of China ’ s economic fluctuation features since 2000.The enlightenment in policy making is that to continue to promote further the ROCSOE,which is at the stage of attacking an economic for tification,is significant to China ’ s macroeconomic stabilizing growth.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第3期11-22,187,共12页
Journal of Management World
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790252)
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(11XNH059)的阶段性研究成果