摘要
依据2004—2010年沈阳市住宅销售面积的数据,构建了沈阳市住宅需求的灰色GM(1,1)模型。模型经过残差比对和后误差检验,其精度等级达到Ⅰ级。运用构建的沈阳市住宅需求的灰色GM(1,1)模型对2011—2015年沈阳市住宅需求进行科学预测。经过三个方面的分析,预测结果具备合理性。预测结果可以为地方政府调控住宅市场、开发商制定开发规模和购房者购买住宅提供数据支撑和理论依据。
Based on the historical data of Shenyang residential sales area from 2004 to 2010,the article establishes Grey GM（1,1） forecasting model.After error inspecting and the residual checking of Grey forecasting model,model precision grades is level 1 accuracy.The authors use a Grey GM（1,1） model of the housing needs in Shenyang for scientific prediction of the housing needs in Shenyang from 2011 to 2015.After analysis from three aspects,forecast results have rationality.The forecasting results of the development of the local housing market can provide scientific basis for the government regulation,developers＇ regulation of the scale of development and consumption from the real estate consumers.
出处
《沈阳建筑大学学报（社会科学版）》
2012年第1期50-53,共4页
Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science
基金
住房和城乡建设部科学技术计划项目(2010-R5-13)
