摘要
应用协整分析方法,对四川1978年到2009年的耕地面积与经济增长之间的关系进行了定量分析,得到了长期均衡模型。结果表明,四川人均GDP每增长1个百分点,将导致耕地面积减少0.105个百分点;随着四川经济增长由粗放型向集约型过渡,耕地面积将会趋于平衡状态,这与近年的统计数据相吻合。但这种平衡的获得,需要政府部门加强对建设占用耕地的监督和管理。
The cointegration analysis method was applied to carry on a quantitative analysis of the relationship between cultivated land changes and economic growth from 1978 to 2009 in Sichuan province. A long-term equilibrium model was gotten. The result shows that if GDP of average per capita of Sichuan increases by 1 percentage that will lead to arable land decrease by 0. 105 percentages. With the transition of Sichuan economic growth from extension to intension, cultivated land area will tend toward equilibrium, which coincides with statistical data in recent years. It is necessary for Government departments to strengthen the supervision of construction occupation of cultivated land and management in order to obtain dynamic equilibrium of arable land.
出处
《河南科技学院学报（社会科学版）》
2012年第1期1-4,共4页
Journal of Henan Institute of Science and Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"中国农业区域专业化发展研究"(10BJY067)
四川省教育厅资助项目"产业集聚与四川区域经济协调发展研究"(07SA064)的阶段成果之一
关键词
耕地资源
经济增长
人均GDP
协整分析
cultivated land resource
economic growth
GDP per capita
cointegration analysis
