摘要
多米诺效应是引发化工重大事故的主要原因之一。本文综合国内外的研究成果,对火灾热辐射、冲击波超压等造成的多米诺效应进行了深入分析,建立基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价模型,其中包括了评价流程、传播概率、阈值距离计算、多米诺效应对事故频率的影响及后果分析的内容。最后利用Matlab7.1计算平台,以汽油储罐进行实例分析,结果表明该方法是一种适用于多米诺效应定量评价的良好方法,能够比较科学、有效的对危险单元进行风险评价,使重大事故风险评价更切合实际,为政府监管部门和化工企业进行事故的控制和预防提供决策技术。
In the context of risk assessment and loss prevention in chemical process industries,the term domino effect denotes ＇chain of accidents＇,or situations when a fire/explosion/missile/toxic load generated by an accident in one unit in an industry causes secondary and higher order accidents in other units.Domino effect is a major cause of severe accidents in chemical industry.Combining with achievements in domino effect,the quantitative risk assessment model based on domino effect was presented,which included assessment process,transmission probability,threshold distance calculation,accident frequency with domino effect and consequence analysis.As a case study,a domino effect evaluation of gasoline tanks was presented.The results showed that the method was suitable for quantitative risk assessment of domino effect,which can give better results of risk assessment,and support the decision of government and enterprises for accident control and prevention.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
2012年第1期71-76,共6页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
上海市科委2010年度"科技创新行动计划"(编号:10231203000)
关键词
多米诺效应
定量风险评价
阈值距离
事故情景
domino effect
quantitative risk assessment
threshold distance
accident scenarios
