摘要
2010年上海世博会是全球瞩目的盛会,它的影响涉及方方面面.本文主要以国际来沪旅游人数为主,其他各因素为辅,综合利用灰色GM(1,1)方法和时间序列法建立了预测模型,对上海世博会的影响力进行了定量评估.预测了若上海没有举办世博会,2010年1～7月国际入沪旅游人数(单位:万人)分别为53.97,56.58,58.27,59.43,60.25,60.87,61.36,构造可度量指标λ=X0-X0*/X0*,进行分析可知,世博会对上海的经济等方面产生短期的剧烈影响.
Abstract：The 2010 Shanghai World Expo is the global event,it involves many aspects of influence. It mainly to Shanghai international tourist arrivals is given priority, the other factors are complementary, the prediction model was established by gray GM（ 1,1 ） method and time sequence method. Forecasts the World Expo is not held that international tourist arrivals （unit： Ten thousand） were 53.97, 56.58, 58.27, 59.43, 60.25, 60.87, 61.36,structure the metric index λ=X0-X0＊/X0＊, to carry on the analysis, it is known that the World Expo in shanghai has short-term drastic effect about Shanghai economic, etc.
出处
《南阳师范学院学报》
CAS
2011年第12期14-17,共4页
Journal of Nanyang Normal University
基金
南阳师范学院STP资助课题(No.STP2010001)
关键词
世博会
GM(1
1)模型
时间序列法
自相关函数
偏相关函数
the World Expo
GM（ 1,1 ） model
time sequence method
auto correlation function
partial correlation function
