摘要
本文首先简要回顾了有关老龄化社会的人口红利效应的相关研究。为分析老龄化中国人口红利实现的可能性,本文利用抽样人口数据,预测了未来75年我国人口规模与结构的变化趋势,指出在未来的大部分年份里,从第一人口红利的角度看,人口结构很可能将对中国经济增长起负面作用;而解决未来养老问题并实现第二人口红利的关键是:构建积累制的养老金计划。最后,本文从养老金的税收制度、积累制养老金计划的安全运营机制与积累制养老金制度构建步骤三个角度探讨了未来我国构建积累制养老金计划的相关问题。
This study reviews the studies on demographic dividend in aging society. Then, based on the sampling demographic data, this study predicts the changing tendency of China＇s demographic scale and structure, which shows that in the view of the first demographic dividend, demographic structure will have negative effects on China＇s economic growth in most future years. Thus, this study points out that establishing the accumulated pension plan is one of the important and feasible ways for capital accumulating, which is key to solve the social problems of the future aging society and to achieve the second demographic dividend in China. At the same time, the government＇ s providing the relevant laws and policies in favor of improving the efficiency of the pension plan is the prerequisite to settle the China＇ s aging problems.
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
2012年第1期71-82,共12页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
中国青年政治学院青年项目(项目名称:老龄化中国人口红利效应分析
项目编号:1890304811)的资助
关键词
人口结构
人口红利
人口老龄
化养老金
Demographic Dividend
Demographic Structure
Aging Population
Pension
