摘要
为保障国家粮食安全、应对气候变化对双季稻生产的影响提供科学依据,利用本地化的作物生长模型分析B2情景下湘鄂双季稻发育期和产量的变化,应用B2情景下逐日气象要素预测值,采用作物生长模型的方法,对2011—2050年气候变化对湘鄂双季稻发育期及产量的影响进行分析。结果表明,在灌溉条件下,2011—2050年湘鄂双季稻全生育期比1961—1990年缩短1～7天,单产比1961—1990年下降5%～12%;其中双季早稻全生育期比1961—1990年缩短1.5～4.5天,单产比1961—1990年下降7%～14%,双季晚稻全生育期比1961—1990年缩短1～3天,单产比1961—1990年下降2%～10%。雨养条件下,2011—2050年双季稻全生育期与灌溉条件下的双季稻全生育期相差不大,但产量降幅较大。2011—2050年湘鄂双季稻单产比灌溉条件下的双季稻下降9%～21%,其中双季早稻下降3%～14%,双季晚稻下降13%～33%。在B2情景下,利用本地化的作物生长模型分析表明,湘鄂双季稻发育期和产量均呈下降趋势,尤其是雨养条件下的双季晚稻,产量下降幅度较大,需积极应对气候变化对湘鄂双季稻生产的影响。
Using the localized crops growth model analyzes the change of the all growth periods and yields for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province under the B2 scene. It provided the scientific basis on food security and the influence of dealing with climate change on agricultural production in China. Using the meteorological element predicted value under the B2 scenarios and the crops growth model, analyzed the potential influence of growth stages and yields for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050. The results showed that： all growth periods of irrigation for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 1-7 days than from 1961 to 1990. The yield would reduce for 5%-12%. All growth periods for early rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 1.5-4.5 days than from 1961 to 1990. The yield would reduce for 7%-14%. All growth periods for late rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 1-3 days thanfrom 1961 to 1990. The yield would reduce for 2%-10%. The difference between all growth periods of rain-fed for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050, and all growth periods of irrigation wouldn’t be big. But difference between yield of rain-fed for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050, and yield of irrigation would be big. The yield of rain-fed for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 9%-21% than the yield of irrigation. The yield of rain-fed for early rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 3%-14% than the yield of irrigation. The yield of rain-fed for late rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 13%-33% than the yield of irrigation. The preliminary analysis indicated that the growth stages and yield for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province would reduce under the B2 scenarios. Especially the
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第33期121-126,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项"气候变化对武汉区域主要粮食作物影响评估研究"(CCSF-09-14)
湖南省重大科技专项"湖南省极端气象灾害预警评估技术体系研究与示范"(2008FJ1006)
科技部公益性行业科研专项"农用天气预报关键技术研究"(GYHY200906021)
湖南省气象局重大项目"现代农业气象业务服务综合平台研究"
关键词
作物模型
双季稻发育期
产量
B2情景
湘鄂
crops growth model
all growth periods for double rice
yields
B2 scenarios
Hunan Province and Hubei Province
