摘要
碳排放与经济增长之间的关系是环境经济学研究的重要领域,以陕西1995—2009年人均CO2排放量与人均GDP为研究对象,利用EKC理论和脱钩理论对二者之间的关系进行了长期演变预测和短期变动趋势分析。结果表明,1995—2009年陕西碳排放与经济增长长期之间并不符合EKC理论的倒"U"型假说,反而呈现出"N"型关系。同时脱钩理论进一步证明短期内二者之间出现过不同程度的脱钩,如1997—1999年陕西碳排放与经济增长处于"强脱钩"状态,2001年、2003—2006年二者呈现出"扩张性负脱钩"特征;进入2007年以后二者之间处于"弱脱钩"状态。所以,无论长短期都说明,在未来一段时间陕西的碳排放量将维持继续增长的趋势。
The relationship between carbon emission and economic growth is an important subject of environmental economics research.In this paper,GDP per capita and CO2 emission per capita of Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2009 are studied.We use EKC theory and the theory of decoupling to analyze the relationship between the forecasts of long-term evolution and short-term change.Empirical studies show that the long-term relationship between carbon emission and economic growth in that period does not correspond to the theoretical EKC hypothesis of an inverted 'U' shape,but shows an 'N' type of relationship.On the other hand,decoupling theory further demonstrates that there appear decoupling of different degrees between the two on the short-term basis:the 'strong decoupling' state from 1997 to 1999 and 'negative expansion decoupling' in 2001 and from 2003 to 2006.Since 2007,the two have been in a 'weak decoupling' state.Seen from both the long-term and short-term relationship,carbon emission in Shaanxi will keep growing in the future.
出处
《西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）》
2011年第6期69-75,6,共7页
Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目"陕西省能源产业低碳发展路径选择:耦合
脱钩与创新"(11E117)
关键词
陕西省
EKC理论
脱钩理论
碳排放
经济增长
Shaanxi Province
EKC theory
decoupling theory
carbon emission
economic growth
