摘要
选用 1 95 1～ 1 996年中国 1 6 0站逐月降水资料 ,太平洋逐月平均网格点海温资料( 1 0°S～ 5 0°N,1 2 0～ 80°E) ,逐月大尺度环流指数资料 ,分析并探讨造成 1 996年南方洪涝的环流特征、气候背景及海温影响机制。结果表明 :大气环流指数与前期太平洋海温场有明显的遥相关关系。冬、春季海温的冷暖变化程度 ,可预示后期 7月各环流系统的趋势变化 ,环流系统指数自身演变存在较明显的年代际变化规律 ,1 996年南方洪涝就是在这种气候背景下形成的。海温冷暖变化影响大气环流系统的这种演变关系 ,对南方洪涝的短期气候预测具有一定的指示意义。
Using the data of monthly precipitation in China,sea surface temperatures and the general circulation indexes,the general circulation feature,climate background and SST influence were studied.It′s shown that:there is an apparent teleconnection between the general circulation indexes and SST field in the Pacific; the variation of the Pacific SST in winter and spring is able to predict precipitation tread in South China in next summer.Floods in South China were formed in this kind of circulation background, the early change of SST and feature of general circulation have an indication to precipitation forecast in South China.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第2期33-36,40,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
南方
洪涝
海气环境场
海温变化
flood in South China sea surface temperature general circulation index monthly precipitation
