摘要
基于电力系统中长期负荷预测的特点,针对常规灰色预测模型存在的不足,提出一种基于数据平滑处理,以及线性回归残差修正的改进灰色预测方法。对某地区算例比较和分析表明,本方法可明显提高中长期负荷预测精度。
Based on the analyses of the characteristics of medium and long term load forecasting in power system and the shortcomings of conventional grey prediction model,this essay proposes a method based on data smoothing and residual correction which is based on linear regression,to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting.Numerical examples and analyses in a region validate that the improved prediction model can obviously improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term power load forecasting.
出处
《重庆电力高等专科学校学报》
2011年第5期86-88,共3页
Journal of Chongqing Electric Power College
关键词
灰色模型
负荷预测
线性回归
改进灰色模型
grey model
load forecasting
linear regression
improved grey model
