摘要
本文通过估算2011-2020年我国成品油需求,进而估计原油总需求及由此可能产生的能源缺口。研究结果表明,我国汽车和交通运输业对成品油的需求量较大、增长较快。如果基于能源安全考虑把原油对外依存度控制在60%-65%之间,就会产生明显的原油和成品油缺口。弥补原油缺口的途径主要有液态生物质燃料补充、发展混合能源和新能源汽车、节能降耗等几个方面。其中最快捷有效的途径是采用燃料乙醇与生物柴油补充成品油的不足,因此要加强对液态生物质燃料产业的扶持和激励,促进液态生物质燃料的发展。
This paper estimates aggregate demand for crude oil and energy gap by calculating the demand for refined oil in China from 2011 to 2020.The analysis shows that the demand for refined oil in automotive and transportation industries is great and increases rapidly.If the import dependency ratio of crude oil is controlled between 60% and 65% in view of energy security,the obvious gap of crude and refined oil between demand and supply will emerge.The ways to shorten the gap of crude oil include the use of liquid biomass fuel,the development of hybrid and new energy vehicles,energy saving etc.The most efficient and effective way is the use of ethanol fuel and biodiesel,so it is necessary to provide more support for liquid biomass fuel industry and promote its continuous development.
出处
《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期72-79,共8页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目(11BJY062)
上海市自然科学基金项目(09ZR1420300)
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2010BJB007)
关键词
成品油需求
原油需求
生物质燃料
demand for refined oil
demand for crude oil
biomass fuel
