摘要
能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着黑龙江省经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在一定时间内很难改变,因此,碳排放量在短时间内很难下降。本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用因素分解法,定量分析了1978-2009年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对黑龙江省人均碳排放的影响。结果显示经济发展对拉动黑龙江省人均碳排放的贡献率快速增长,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制黑龙江省人均碳排放的贡献率在近几年增张速度减缓。这说明能源效率对抑制中国碳排放的作用在减弱,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用难以抵销由经济发展拉动的黑龙江省碳排放量增长。
Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions.With the economic expanding in Heilongjiang Province,the sharply increasing consumption of energy and coal-focused energy structure is very difficult to change in short-term,therefore,the carbon emissions is very difficult to decline in short-time.Based on the identity of carbon emissions,the decomposition analysis is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure,energy efficiency and economic development to the per capita carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province from 1978 to 2009.The results showed that the fast rate of economic development contribution to the development of carbon emissions per capita,however the contribution rate of energy efficiency and energy structure inhibiting carbon emissions the per capita was weaken in recent years.Some conclusions from above were that the restrain effect of energy efficiency was weaken;the coal-focused energy structure had not changed at all;and the restrain effect of energy structure and energy efficiency could not offset the driving force of economic development to carbon emissions.
出处
《国土与自然资源研究》
北大核心
2011年第6期91-94,共4页
Territory & Natural Resources Study
关键词
碳排放
因素分解
经济发展
能源效率
能源结构
carbon emissions
decomposition analysis
Economic development
energy efficiency
energy structure
