摘要
目的采用时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型与均数移动平均法相结合的方法对2010年石家庄市手足口病报告信息进行综合预测,为该病防控提供科学依据。方法用SPSS时间序列图(sequence chart)与"ExpertModeler"过程相结合的方法,拟合上述信息的ARIMA模型;在分析病例就诊时间特征的基础上,使用均数移动平均法将发病时间后移相应时间,获得其网络直报疫情模型。结果建立了手足口发病规律模型ARIMA(0,1,1),分析发现95%病例发病至网络直报间隔时间为6d,在ARIMA(0,1,1)预测基础上,使用均数移动平均法将预测病例发病时间后移6d,获得其网络直报疫情模型。结论 ARIMA模型与均数移动平均法相结合的方法可用于手足口病信息的动态分析和短期预测。
Objective Combined ARIMA model of time series analysis and moving average methods to analyze the reporting information and integrated forecasting the hand-foot-and-mouth disease,in order to provide the scientific basis for it prevention and control.Method Using the SPSS sequence chart and expert modeler method to fit ARIMA model.At the basis of analyzing characters of time of visiting hospital,using moving average methods to retroposition disease time and obtained direct reporting network system model.Results Hand-foot-and-mouth disease ARIMA（0,1,1） was established,by analyzing 95% of cases we found that from morbidity to direct reporting network system there were 6 days,at the basis of ARIMA（0,1,1）,used moving average methods to retroposition 6 days of disease time and obtained direct reporting network system model.Conclusions Combined ARIMA model and moving average methods can used for analyzing the dynamic hand-foot-and-mouth disease and making a short-term prediction.
出处
《医学动物防制》
2011年第11期1001-1002,共2页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
