摘要
本文以我国制造业上市公司为研究对象,利用其被ST前三年的季度时间序列数据建立财务预警模型,以期能反映上市公司财务变化的动态累积效应。研究表明:基于时间序列数据建立的logistic财务预警模型预测效果优于基于截面数据的财务预警模型;预警方法上logistic逻辑回归较fisher多元判别更佳;模型实证结果显示,公司盈利能力、每股收益和总经理持股比例对公司财务困境有显著影响。
Considering the deficiencies in the field of researches on financial crisis prediction for the present, taking manufacturing listed companies for the study, this paper used quarterly time series data three years before ST time to build financial early warning model. The results showed that: the logistic financial early warning model based on time series data was better than traditional financial models; empirical results showed that corporate profitability, earnings per share and general manager of the company's stake have a significant effect in financial distress.
出处
《财会通讯（下）》
2011年第9期74-76,共3页
Communication of Finance and Accounting
关键词
制造业上市公司
财务困境
全局主成分
LOGISTIC回归
Manufacturing listed companies Financial distress Logistic model Global principal component analysis
