摘要
根据地质构造情况、历史地震活动特征及主震后一天、三天记录的余震资料，利用自然类比法对１９９５年１０月２４日云南武定６．５级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行早期综合判断，认为该序列为强余震极多型地震序列，发生更大地震的可能性不大，但余震颇度会很高，强余震次数极多，持续时间较长，一个月内４级以上强余震数可能在７９次左右，最大余震为Ｍｓ５．３级左右。早期判断结果与实际情况基本相符。
According to the geological structure and active characteristics of the historical earthquakes, by using natural analogism method, the authors draw the following conclusion from aftershock data by recorded during 1 day and 3 days after the main shock. The seismic sequence of Wuding earthquake who occured on Oct. 24, 1995 in Yunnan is a most-strong-aftershock one, the pessibility of occuring another be earthquake is not much, but there are many aftershocks The frequency of strong aftershocks is very high , and the Sequence will continue for a long time . The numberoOf aftershocksfor M≥4 is about to be 79 during one month after the main shock, and the maximum one will be Ms 5. 3. The judgement above agress with the fact.
出处
《高原地震》
1996年第2期10-17,共8页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
武定地震
地震序列
序列类型
自然类比法
Wuding earthquake
Earthquake sequence
type
Natural analaogism method
