摘要
加入 WTO对中国经济的影响成为一年来各界讨论的热门话题 ,但看法相佐甚远。为此 ,作者利用中国科学院农业政策研究中心研制的 CAPSIM模型 ,设置了基准方案和贸易自由化方案 ,对未来的农产品生产、消费、进出口贸易和市场价格等进行了预测。文章从理论上分析了贸易自由化对中国农业可能产生的利弊影响以及对这些影响的再认识 ,进而从实践上和非经济因素方面分析了加入世贸组织对中国农业可能产生的影响 ,认为入世是我国 2 0多年改革的继续 ,入世对中国农业负面影响有一些缓解因素 ,入世是未来改革难得的催化剂 ,对于入世将对中国农业产生极大损害的预言表示置疑。在对上述认识做小结的基础上 ,提出 3个方面、
In view of the heated issue of Chinese entry of WTO that people have far different opinions on its influence on Chinese economy,the author established a standard program and a trade liberalization scheme and predicted the future production,consumption,import and export trade and market price etc.of farm products by the use of the CAPSIM model designed by Agricultural Policy Research Center,China Academy of Science.The paper theoretically analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of trade liberalization on Chinese agriculture and the recognition of its influence,studied from practice and non\|economy factors on the possible effects of entry of WTO on Chinese agriculture.The author considered that the entry of WTO was the continuation of more than twenty years of reform,the relief for its negative influence on Chinese agriculture,the rare promoter for future reform and doubted about the prediction that the entry of WTO would do great harm to Chinese agriculture.Based on above analysis,the author put forward 12 countermeasures from three aspects.
出处
《福建农业学报》
CAS
2000年第S1期37-41,共5页
Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家杰出青年基金! (7972 5 0 0 1)等资助
关键词
贸易自由化
WTO
中国农业
利弊影响
政策建议
Trade liberalization
Entry of WTO
Chinese agriculture
Advantages and disadvantages
Policy suggestion
