摘要
GM(1,1)模型具有计算量小、过程简单且精度较高等优点,特别适合于基础数据相对缺乏的城市桥梁交通量预测研究。因此,本文在介绍GM(1,1)模型的基本原理基础上,收集福州市橘园洲大桥2005年至2009年的交通量数据,应用GM(1,1)模型对其进行未来年的交通量预测,从而为城市桥梁交通量预测提供了一种简单实用的方法。这对于桥梁的建设和管理具有十分重要意义。
GM （1, 1） model has many advantages, such as, a small amount of calculations, simple process and high precision. Especially, it can be used to predict the future traffic of a city bridge under lacking enough information and data of the bridge traffic. Consequently, the article introduced the principle of GM（1, 1） model, and collected the traffic volume data of Juyuanzh^u bridge in Fuzhou from 2005 to 2009, then applied the GM （1, 1） model to making a prediction of Juyuanzhou bridge＇s traffic volume in the next years. This model providedakindof simple and practical method forpredlctingcity＇s bridge traffic volume, which was very important for bridge＇s construction and management.
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2011年第4期114-118,共5页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
基金
福建省教育厅资助项目(JB04117)
