摘要
基于1960-2006年闽江流域月径流、降水和气温资料,采用弹性分析和Mann-kendall检验的方法,探讨流域径流演变与气候变化之间的关系.结果表明:(1)采用非参数方法和改进公式方法计算弹性系数,均具有简便、可靠的优点,适于分析径流对气候要素的响应特征和规律.(2)1960-2006年闽江流域控制站点竹岐站径流对降水的弹性系数,以非参数和改进公式方法计算分别为0.91和0.98,对气温的弹性系数分别为1.00和0.91.(3)从时间变化来看,1960-2006年流域径流对降水弹性系数呈下降的趋势,对气温弹性系数在80年代末至90年代中期为高值.分析其原因,一方面是人类活动加剧对径流变化产生了重要的影响,引起降水弹性系数有所下降;另一方面是区域气温上升引起水循环加快,从而引起气温弹性系数上升.
Based on the monthly data of runoff,precipitation and temperature in the Min River basin,the paper explores the relationship between the changes of runoff and climate in the basin by using elasticity analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The results show that：（1） The methods of elasticity calculation based on nonparametric method and the improved formula both have the advantages of convenience and reliability,thus are suitable for the analysis of runoff response to climate elements.（2）The elasticity coefficients of runoff to precipitation from 1960 to 2006 in the basin calculated by nonparametric method and the improved formula were 0.91 and 0.98 respectively,and the elasticity coefficients to temperature were 1.00 and 0.91 respectively.（3） There was a decreasing trend in the elasticity coefficient of runoff to precipitation while the elasticity coefficient of runoff to temperature was high from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s in the Min River basin.Human activities have played an important role in the changes of runoff during recent years,which results in the decrement of precipitation elasticity.Regional warming leads to the acceleration of water cycle,thus the temperature elasticity increases.
出处
《福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期101-105,共5页
Journal of Fujian Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
教育部博士点基金资助项目(20103503110002)
福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2010J05092)
福建省教育厅资助项目(JA10081)
关键词
径流
气候变化
弹性分析
闽江流域
runoff
climate change
elasticity analysis
Min River basin
