摘要
消费是影响一国经济增长的重要因素,对于影响消费的众多因素研究,大多基于收入分配不均和收入不确定性视角,而忽略了另外一个非常重要的因素,那就是人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响效应。上世纪70年代计划生育政策的推行和人口预期寿命的延长,加快了我国人口转变及老龄化发展的步伐,这一转变必将改变居民的储蓄消费行为,影响储蓄-消费模式和消费率。基于我国2002-2008年省级面板数据,本文研究了各地区人口转变对消费率的影响。研究表明,消费率与少儿抚养比、老年抚养比之间分别存在正相关关系与负相关关系。
Consumption is an important factor in a nation's economic growth,for the many factors affecting consumption,most research based on income inequality and income uncertainty perspective,while they ignored another very important factor,that is the impact effect of population age structure on consumption.The implementation of family planning policy since 1970s and the extension of life expectancy has accelerated the pace of population aging,which will in turn change the saving-consumption behavior of individuals and affect both the saving-consumption pattern and the consumption rate.According to the 2002-2008 national demographic and the economic statistic data,this paper looks at the influences of demographic transition on the consumption ratio in different regions.The research results show that there is a positive relationship between consumption ratio and youth dependency ratios,and there is a negative relationship between consumption ratio and old age dependency ratios.
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
2011年第6期74-78,共5页
Northwest Population Journal
关键词
人口年龄结构
消费率
抚养比
人口红利
population age structure
consumption ratio
dependency ratio
demographic dividend