摘要
中国碳排放与经济增长的关系是目前热点问题。研究碳排放与经济增长关系有助于实现中国2020年碳减排目标。选取1953～2008年中国碳排放量和经济增长数据,运用协整和误差修正模型及Granger因果关系,研究碳排放与经济增长关系。研究结果表明:从长期来看,碳排放与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系(协整关系),GDP增加1%,碳排放将增加0.36%,即碳排放对经济增长的长期弹性为0.36;在短期内,两者存在着动态调整机制,非均衡误差项的存在,保证了两者之间长期均衡关系的存在。误差修正系数(-0.669 4)为负,调整方向符合误差修正机制,并且误差修正模型的拟合效果比较理想。Granger因果关系研究表明:总体来说,碳排放与经济增长之间互为双向因果关系。针对研究结果,提出了"发展低碳经济、提高能源效率和发展非化石能源"的策略,减少能源消费和降低碳排放,实现碳排放与经济增长的相对脱钩。
The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is becoming a hot issue in China.Studing the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth can help to achieve the carbon reduction targets in 2020.Based on the data of carbon emissions in China and economic growth from 1953 to 2008,this paper used co-integration,error correction model and Granger causality to study the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth.The results show that it exists long-run equilibrium relationship（co-integration relationship） between carbon emissions and economic growth in the long-run,economic growth increased by 1%,carbon emissions will increase by 0.36%,that is to say the long-term flexibility from carbon emissions to economic growth is 0.36.At the same time,it exists dynamic adjustment mechanism in the short-run.The non-equilibrium error terms ensure the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth.Error correction coefficient is negative（-0.669 4） and the direction of adjustment meets the error correction mechanism.The fitting result of this model is also ideal.Granger causality results show that it exists mutual causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth on the whole.To reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions,and decouple between carbon emissions and economic growth,the stratege of developing low-carbon economy,improving energy efficiency,developing non-fossil energy was put forward.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第11期1297-1303,共7页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家经济动员办公室项目(G071203)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CX09B-052R)
