摘要
改革开放以来,我国纺织产业取得了巨大的成就,但与此同时,我国纺织产业所面临的问题也越来越多,劳动力等资源成本的上涨,使我国纺织产业发展陷入"瓶颈"。通过借助OLS估计等计量经济学方法,对影响我国纺织产业经济增长的因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,在我国纺织产业的发展中,劳动力投入与纺织工业总产值之间不存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而固定资产投资与纺织工业总产值之间存在着协整关系。从长期来看,固定资产的投资对纺织工业总产值的增长具有促进作用,但这种促进作用具有2年的滞后性。此外,1999—2009年期间,我国纺织产业发展的主要源泉是资金和劳动力的投入。其中,固定资产投资对我国纺织产业经济增长的贡献率为74.71%,劳动力投入的贡献率为19.32%,而科技进步的贡献率仅为5.97%。这说明,尽管我国纺织科技水平获得了较大的进步,但科技进步对我国纺织产业的发展还没有产生明显的推动作用。
Since reform and opening to the outside world,Chinese textile industry has made tremendous achievements.But at the same time it faces more and more challenges.The rise of costs in resources and labor force has become a bottle neck which impedes the development of Chinese textile industry.This paper uses econometric methods such as ordinary least squares（OLS） to analyze the factors influencing the economic growth of Chinese textile industry with examples.The research indicates that in its development there is no long term stabilized and balanced relationship between the investment of labor force and the total output value of Chinese textile industry,while between the fixed asset investment and the total output value of the industry there exists a synergistic relationship.Form a long term viewpoint,the fixed asset investment promotes the growth of the total output value of the industry,but this promotion effect will lag behind 2 years.Furthermore,From 1999 to 2009,the development of the textile industry mainly depended on the investment of funds and labor force,the contribution rate of the former accounted for 74.71%,and the later accounted for 19.32%,whereas the contribution rate of technological progress accounted for only 5.97%.This means that although the textile science and technology of our country have achieved significant progress,which has not exerted a marked push effect on the development of Chinese textile industry.
出处
《纺织学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第11期143-146,共4页
Journal of Textile Research
关键词
纺织产业
经济增长
协整分析
贡献率
科技进步
劳动力投入
固定资产投资
textile industry
economic growth
analysis of synergistic action
contribution rate
technological progress
labor force
fixed asset investment
