摘要
国际油气勘探开发项目从资源丰度到技术难度、从政治形势到经济效益,都蕴含了诸多的风险,但已有的研究中通常使用常权评价模型,从而降低了项目的总体风险,隐没了突出问题的严重性,从而失去了评价的公正性和有效性。本文结合变权理论,构建了多层次、多目标的变权综合评价模型,计算项目风险的变权综合评价值。其中,通过对评价值上限和下限的引用,对关键风险指标设置了"门槛"条件,凸显了关键风险因素对决策的决定意义;而α取值的确定,也反映了决策者的目标取向。最后,本文通过项目案例验证了变权综合评价方法在国际油气合作项目风险评价中应用的有效性。
International petroleum and gas exploration and development project has various risks,from resource quantity to technical difficulty,and from politics to economics.Fixed weights evaluation models have been used in previous studies,the overall risk may be reduced,and the striking problem may be ignored,so that the valuation lose the impartial and effectiveness.Based on variable weights theory,multi-hierachy and multi-objective variable weights comprehensive evaluation model has been built.And the up-limit and down-limit have been introduced.In the model to act as the threshold of the key risk index,the decisive role of the key risk index is strengthened,while the goal of the decision is reflected through what ＂α＂is.In the end,the effectiveness of the model on international petroleum and gas exploration and development project risk evaluation is proved through a case.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2011年第11期11-14,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
国家重大科技专项(2008ZX05031-005-001)
关键词
油气开发
开发风险
油气勘探
变权理论
Oil and gas development
Development risk
Oil and gas exploration
Varialde weights theory
