摘要
由1983-2009年高等教育在校学生数的增长趋势图可以发现,我国高等教育规模发展表现为一种"S"形增长,为此构建logistic增长曲线模型,并结合1983-2009年数据对未来10年我国高等教育在校学生数进行预测。预测结果略高于《国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要》的规划值,它从一个侧面印证了规划值的科学性,也说明了高等教育规模规划存在微调的可能性。
According to the growth tendency chart of students in higher education in 1983-2009, it appears a ＂S＂ shaped growth in scale development of higher education. So this paper builds the logistic growth curve model and predicts the number of students in higher education in the next 10 years combined with the 1983-2009 data. The result of prediction is slightly higher than the planning value of ＂national long-term reform and development plan （2010-2020）＂, it comfirms the sicence of planning value from one aspect, and also illustrates the possibility of fine-tune in scale planning of higher education.
出处
《教育与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期7-9,共3页
Education & Economy
基金
全国教育科学规划教育部重点课题"多校区高校运行成本节约研究"(课题批准号:DFA090361)
