摘要
本文建立了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策模型,并以中国经济为研究对象,以福利效应为最优政策的评估标准,研究了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策机制。分析表明:在Ramsey最优均衡下,财政和货币政策共同作用于通货膨胀和产出目标,以严格通货膨胀为目标的最优货币规则会使得政策的福利损失最小,但货币政策在产出目标、通货膨胀目标以及政策福利损失三者上不能同时兼顾;最优财政规则是趋向缩小收支差,从而趋近于福利损失最小。本文同时使用贝叶斯分析,对中国经济政策2005年第一季度至2009年第二季度的福利效应进行了评估,实证分析表明:样本期间政策的无条件福利损失处于波动状态,经济增长增加了家庭部门的条件福利损失,即经济增长导致跨期消费成本增加。
This paper establishes NNK Ramsey models with collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies,aiming at real economy in China and using welfare cost as evaluation on the policy effects, and analyzes the collaborative regimes for optimal fiscal and monetary policy. The results show that under the Ramsey optimal equilibrium,with the optimal rate of zero annual inflation and 3.96% interest rate, the obstacles on price dispersion would be solved and the gross economy will keep the stable increases. Dilemma may be existed at the choice between output and inflation with optimal monetary policy and optimal fiscal rule necessarily decreasing the difference for lump - sum and governmental spending. Based on the quarterly data from 2005 to 2009, evidence also shows the growth of China＇ s economy increases the welfare lost and the welfare effects increasingly expand.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期41-53,共13页
Economic Review
