摘要
石油作为一种重要的上游产品,其价格必然与消费价格指数(CPI)存在一定的联系。利用非线性平滑转换回归模型,可对1990至2011年间国际油价和我国CPI的关系进行研究。研究结果表明:我国的CPI具有一定的惯性,但强度较弱;国际油价与我国CPI之间存在单向的Granger因果关系;国际油价对CPI的冲击具有非线性性,并对我国的通货膨胀产生较强的间接效应。由此可见,我国的通货膨胀更可能是成本推动型,国际油价等重要外生因素通过生产成本的传导间接影响了物价水平。我国政府应把控制通货膨胀的重心放在生产领域,完善石油储备等长期战略性规划以及建立防止油价剧烈波动的常规价格调节机制和充分的应急预案,并通过调控实体经济的生产行为来控制通货膨胀。
Prices of petroleum as an important upstream product must have a close relationship with the consumption price index（CPI）.This paper attempts to use the nonlinear smooth transition regression（STR） model to study the correlations between international oil prices（IOP） and CPI in China from 1990 to 2011.The results show that CPI in China has some,albeit not strong,inertia;that a one-way Granger causality exists between IOP and the CPI in China;and that the impact of IOP on CPI is nonlinear and produces a strong indirect effect on the inflation in China.It is therefore argued that inflation in China is more likely to be a cost-push one and that some important exogenous factors such as IOP will influence the price level indirectly via the transmission of production costs.It is suggested that our government focus its efforts to control inflation on the phase of production,make better long-term strategic plans such as petroleum reservation,establish a regular mechanism for price adjustment and sufficient emergency plans to prevent drastic fluctuations of oil prices,and regulate the production behavior of real economy.
出处
《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第5期43-50,共8页
Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)
基金
国家社科重大基金研究项目"扩大内需的宏观经济政策研究"(08&ZD034)
国家社科重点基金研究项目"国家统计数据质量管理研究"(09AZD045)
教育部人文社科重点研究基地基金项目"我国地区间收入分配差异与劳动力转移的经济增长效应分析"(07JJD790145)
福建省社会科学规划研究项目"我国收入差异问题研究"(2009b051)
关键词
国际油价
物价水平
非线性关系
CPI
STR模型
international oil price
level of product price
nonlinear relation
CPI
STR model
