摘要
首先以我国A股上市公司2003～2008年的各季度业绩预警中的业绩预悲公告为研究对象,发现其存在一种特有的现象——群聚。然后选取综合业、房地产业、批发零售业和交运仓储业中的391个跟随者的业绩预悲披露为样本,运用威布尔比例风险模型从管理者羊群行为视角对群聚现象作出解释。实证结果发现:公司在特定的某天进行业绩预悲披露的概率与在其之前发布业绩预悲信息的同类公司数量正相关。也即观察到的发布业绩预悲信息的同类公司数量越多,管理者越会作出更快的披露公司业绩预悲信息的决策,从而造成了披露时机的群聚。
Taking the quarterly Earning Warnings of negative profit forecast （pre-sad performance） in Chinese A share listed companies from 2003 to 2008 for the study, we found the unique phenomenon-clustering. With 391 followers＇ negative profit forecasts in four industry of Comprehensive, wholesale and retail trade, real estate and delivered storage as our sample, we try to explain the clustering phenomenon from the managers＇ herd behavior perspective by using the Weibull proportional hazards model of survival analysis. Empirical results showed that： probability of negative profit forecast announcement in a particular day and the number of peer companies that had released the negative profit forecast in advance are positively correlated, that is, the more peer companies disclosure it observed, the faster it will disclose its own. Therefore, managers＇ herd behavior in negative profit forecast disclosure is an important reason for ＂clustering＂ phenomenon.
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第10期27-37,共11页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71071010)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(YWF-10-06-004)的资助
