摘要
针对建立准确、有效的负荷预测模型是长期电力系统负荷预测的关键,基于灰色预测、趋势预测和二次指数平滑法等传统的定量负荷预测方法,引入方法组合创新思想,根据最小二乘原理采用Eviews软件进行变量分析及变量类比,剔除异常值并建立拟合曲线以预测电力负荷,并以供电企业的实际售电量为算例,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。
It is the most important foundation for load forecasting to establish correct and effective load forecasting model. Based on grey prediction, trend prediction and second exponential smoothing method, innovative idea is introduced in this paper. According to the least square principle, Eviews software is used to make variable analysis and variable analogy. Then the abnormal value is eliminated and corresponding fitting curve is established. Taking the actual electricity sales of power supply enterprise for an example, the feasibility and validity of the method is verified.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2011年第10期207-209,206,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
电力系统
长期负荷预测
方法组合创新
验证
power systems
long term load forecasting
method combination innovation
verification
