摘要
以油菜籽贸易政策的演变为背景,结合国际机构对油菜籽贸易的预测,研究了油菜籽贸易的决定因素,回答了2005年以来中国油菜籽进口的持续增长,特别是2009年进口激增,是偶然现象还是历史必然。结果表明,中国油料贸易政策决定了油菜籽及其制品的贸易规模和贸易结构,除此之外,中国市场和国际市场油菜籽价差、农户从事油菜生产机会成本的增加、中国农业生产的资源禀赋等3个因素决定了油菜籽及其制品的长期贸易发展趋势。
Having the evolution of China＇s rapeseed trade policies and the prediction of rapeseed trade growth over the next 10 years by the international agencies as background,the paper studied China＇s rapeseed trade determinants in the future,and explained the economic phenomena of China＇s rapeseed import continuous growth,especially the import surge in 2009.The results showed that China＇s trade policies on oilseed crops settled the trade quantity and trade structure of rapeseed and its products.In addition,the price differentials between domestic and international market,the increasing opportunity cost of engaging in rape production and China＇s resources endowments in agricultural sector all determined the long-term trade trend of China＇s rapeseed and its products.
出处
《中国食物与营养》
2011年第9期42-46,共5页
Food and Nutrition in China
基金
农业部农业国际交流与合作项目"我国油菜籽外贸进入和影响的调查研究(2010)"
关键词
油菜籽
贸易增长
影响因素
China＇s rapeseed
trade growth
trade determinants
