摘要
地震预警是利用地震预报的骨干指标,采用层次分析法,计算分析在区域(分区)和震级已确定的情况下发生地震的紧迫程度。通过把华北地区分为不同的预警区域(南部、西北部和东北部),建立区域地震震情指标预警模型,确定了华北地区14个地震预警判据,利用层次分析法,通过震情指标的相应运算,建立区域指标预警系统,根据预警等级判断标准得出每次震例的红、橙、黄、蓝预警等级。最后对华北地区不同区域的强震进行回顾性检验,在震前得到预警等级较为理想,为政府采取相应防震和应急措施提供依据。
Earthquake early warning is defined as using the main indexes of earthquake prediction to calculate and analyze the urgency of a given-magnitude earthquake by the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） for a given region （or sub-region）. We divide the North China into 3 earthquake-early-warning regions--the South, the North-west, and the Northeast, and build early-warning models of indexes of regional seismic situations to determine 14 early-warning criterion in North China. Using AHP, and performing the calculation of indexes of seismic situations, we build an early-warning system of regional indexes and get the early warning level--Red, Orange, Yellow, and Blue for each earthquake by early-warning criterion. Finally, we check the early-warning system with the historical strong earthquake in North China and get the ideal result.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期389-395,403,共7页
Journal of Seismological Research
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑项目(2006BAC01B03-04-03)资助
关键词
地震预警
层次分析法
华北强震
earthquake warning
AHP
the strong earthquakes in North China
