摘要
This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.
This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.
基金
supported by the National Water Pollution Control and Management Technology Major Projects(Grant No. 2009ZX07423-001)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.51179069and 40971300)
the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grants No.10QX43,09MG16,and 10QG23)
