摘要
目的:估算20世纪80年代育龄妇女在严格计划生育政策下的总和生育率,用回顾性前瞻方式思考我国的人口现状,预测未来生育水平。方法:整理1980～1990年间出生的10344名研究对象的年龄资料,独生子女、非独生子女身份资料和兄妹等组合资料。计算其估计的母代最小年龄组生育率、总和生育率以及二者的矫正生育率。结果:1980～1990各年度间育龄妇女的生育率逐年下降,平均总和生育率为2.07,矫正平均总和生育率为2.14。总和生育率农村妇女>流动妇女>城镇妇女。结论:20世纪80年代的总和生育率已经接近或低于更替水平。人口流动是为"谋生"而不是为"超生"。人口流动是降低生育率的促进因素。人口流动稳定了农村的低生育水平。
Objective： To explore the 1980s total fertility rate of childbearing women. Methods ： A total of 10 344 women born between 1980 and 1990 were recruited. Their fertility rates were evaluated. Results： The birth rate of these respondents tended to decrease year by year between 1980 and 1990. The total fertility rate was 2.07, and the corrected one was 2.14. The total fertility rate of rural women was higher than that of floating women, while the latter was higher than that of urban women. Conclusion ： The 1980s total fertility rate of childbearing women were close to or under the replacemental level. The mobility of population may help to stabilize the low rural fertility level.
出处
《中国计划生育学杂志》
北大核心
2011年第9期540-542,共3页
Chinese Journal of Family Planning
关键词
育龄妇女
总和生育率
流动人口
户籍性质
Childbearing women
Total fertility rate
Floating population
Household registry
