摘要
利用通化市森林可燃物6个观测点的观测资料,分析了林下可燃物含水率与气象要素之间的关系,结果表明,含水率与最高气温、前3 d累积降水量、蒸发量、日照时数有很好的联系,根据相关分析的结果分别对不同测点建立了含水率的线性和多项式气象模型,对2种模型进行了比较,发现在相同的信度水平检验下,多项式模型比线性模型与实况的相关性有了很大提高(调整后的复决定系数平均提高了0.193 7),绝对误差减小了30.368%,因此,多项式模型比线性模型在描述气象要素与含水率的相互关系上更为合理。
Relationships between forest fuel moisture and meteorological factors were analyzed according to the observation data of forest fuels in six observation points of Tonghua City. Results showed that moisture content had good correlations with maximum temperattrre, three-day cumulative precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine hours. Linear and muhinomial models of moisture cot,tent were established according to the results of correlation analysis of moisture contents in different measuring points. At the same confidence level in reliability testing, the relationship predicted by the multinomial model had a higher correlation with the actual situation compared with the linear model. Adjusted coefficient of multiple determination increased by 0. 193 7 averagely, and the absolute error was reduced by 30.368%. Therefore, the multinomial model is more reasonable than the linear model in describing the relationship between meteorological elements and forest fuel moisture content.
出处
《东北林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第9期65-68,共4页
Journal of Northeast Forestry University
基金
吉林省森林防火气象服务系统项目支持
关键词
可燃物
含水率
相关分析
多项式模型
护林防火
Forest fuels
Moisture content
Correlation analysis
Multinomial models
Forest fire prevention
