摘要
为了提高公路货物运输量的预测精度,结合灰色系统和马尔可夫链的特点,建立公路货物运输量灰色马尔可夫预测模型.在实例应用中,建立运输量GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,在获得预测值和残差检验的基础上,将原始数据序列划分为4个状态,计算状态转移概率,利用灰区间中位数建立货运量灰色马尔可夫预测模型,对货运量和货运周转量进行预测.将其预测结果与GM(1,1)灰色模型的预测结果比对,结果表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型可以用于公路货物运输量预测,且其预测精度高于GM(1,1)灰色模型.
In order to improve prediction accuracy for road freight volume,grey-Markov model is established which combines with both grey system and Markov chain.In application,GM（1,1） model is established firstly,which contribute to obtain prediction values.After residual test,original data sequence is divided into four states.Based on calculating state transition probability,grey-Markov model is established employed grey interval median.Freight volume and freight turnover volume are predicted and prediction results are compared with GM（1,1）.Research results show that it is feasible for grey-Markov model to predict freight volume and its prediction accuracy is more than GM（1,1） model.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2011年第4期658-661,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
黑龙江省交通厅2009年重点科技项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(批准号:DL09BB18)资助
