摘要
依据阿勒泰地区1954—2008年月降水资料,运用滑动平均法及气候趋势系数法等分析了阿勒泰地区降水量的变化规律。结果表明:①阿勒泰地区降水主要集中在夏秋两季,夏秋两季降水量占全年降水量的60.7%,5—8月降水量占全年的39.5%～51.7%;②降水年代际变化较为剧烈,20世纪80年代降水量低于多年平均值,90年代则比多年平均值大31.98 mm;③未来阿勒泰地区全年、秋季及冬季降水量呈增加趋势,吉木乃站的年降水量和冬季降水量将显著增加,哈巴河站秋季降水量将显著增加,阿勒泰站的年降水量将增加,富蕴站的年降水量及夏季降水量将增加,福海站的降水量变化趋势不显著。
Using the moving average method and the climate trend coefficient method,the characteristics of spatio-temporal variability in precipitation are analyzed by the monthly precipitation data in Altay Prefecture of Xinjiang Province during 1954-2008.The results indicate that the precipitation is mostly concentrates in summer and autumn,total about 60.7%.From May to August,the four months precipitation occupies about 39.5%-51.7% of the whole year precipitation.Interdacedal change of precipitation in Altay Prefecture is sharp acuteness.The precipitation in 1980s is less than multi-year average,but in 1990s is bigger by about 31.98 mm.In the future,the precipitation of the whole year,autumn and winter will have an increase tendency.The annual precipitation in Jimunai will increase significantly,autumn precipitation in Habahe has an increase tendency significantly,annual precipitation in Altay will increase,annual and summer precipitation in Fuyun will increase significantly,but the variation tendency of precipitation in Fuhai have not obviously.
出处
《人民黄河》
北大核心
2011年第8期31-33,36,共4页
Yellow River
基金
宁夏自然科学基金资助项目(NZ10214)
关键词
趋势分析
降水量变化
阿勒泰地区
trend analysis
precipitation change
Altay Prefecture
