摘要
采用混沌算子预测模型对我国人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率以及人口总数等数据进行预测分析.多个基本混沌算子单元通过加权和的形式构成预测模型.利用已知的人口数据组成预测网络的训练样本,根据网络预测值与期望值之间的误差,调节各混沌算子参数来减小误差,以此改变预测模型的动力学特性,使之逐渐与被预测系统的动力学特性相一致,从而完成预测模型参数的调节和人口数据的预测.与现有预测方法相比,该方法具有更高的预测精度.预测结果表明未来几年我国人口自然增长率将处于下降的趋势,但人口总数仍处于上升的趋势.预计2015年我国人口总数将达到13.7亿左右.
A model based on chaotic operators is proposed for prediction of the population series of China,including natality,mortality,natural growth rate,and population size.Our model is composed of weighted sum of some chaotic operators.Training samples are taken from published data.The control parameters of chaotic operators are adjusted according to the errors between predicted and expected values.The dynamic behavior of the model is changeable and is approximate to that of the predicted system.Comparing to other methods,our model has a higher precision of prediction.Our prediction results show that the natural growth rate of Chinese population in the following years will be declining,but the population will always be growing.It is estimated that in China the population will be up to 1.37 billion in 2015.
出处
《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期459-464,共6页
Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）
基金
天津市自然科学基金(10JCYBJC00074
2010TSTC0072)
关键词
人口
预测
混沌
增长率
population
prediction
chaos
growth rate
China
