摘要
中国柑橘的出口对中国南方广大果农的脱贫致富以及新农村建设的顺利进行有重要的作用。运用1992～2007年的面板数据,利用随机效应模型的估计方法对中国柑橘出口影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示:进口国的GDP、中国的农业从业人口、进口国的人口、距离、汇率、中国柑橘总产量以及与东盟的合作关系等7个要素显著影响中国柑橘的出口。潜力进行测算得出:荷兰、香港、加拿大、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、俄罗斯、越南、美国和新加坡等9个国家和地区属于潜力再造型;日本属于潜力开拓型;德国、菲律宾、泰国、新西兰、韩国和澳大利亚属于潜力巨大型。对此提出积极加入区域合作组织、降低柑橘成本、改善储运条件和改善出口市场结构的建议。
The exporting of China＇s Citrus plays an important role in casting off poverty and setting out on a road to prosperity,and to smoothly build a new rural area for the vast fruit farmers.This article takes the panel date during the year of 1992 to 2007 and makes use of random effect model to practically analyze the factor of affecting the exporting of China＇s Citrus.The result of the study shows that there are seven factors affecting the exporting of China＇s Citrus,which are the GDP of importing countries,the agricultural population of our country,the population of importing countries,distance between the countries and the real rate and the relationship with ASEAN.The calculating of potential process shows that nine countries as The Netherlands,Hong Kong,Canada,Indonesia,Malaysia,Russia,Vietnam,the United States and Singapore belong to the remodel potential style,and Japan belong to the pioneering potential style,and the countries of Germany,the Philippines,Thailand New Zealand,South Korea and Australia belong to the big potential style.Responding to above,we propose a suggestion that we should take part in the regional co-operation,reduce the cost of citrus products,and improve the storage conditions and export market structure.
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2011年第3期252-257,共6页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费资助(CARS-07-07B)
湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队计划项目"农产品流通体系及问题研究"(T200813)资助
