摘要
广西普查年或非普查年的人口数目通过统计调查方法获得,这种方法的缺陷是成本高、时间长。这就需要我们探索其他的人口数目来源渠道。行政记录是一种比较好的来源。使用行政记录资料估计人口数目的方法有人口统计分析模型和线性回归模型。人口统计分析模型是一种利用人口出生、死亡、迁移及其他资料估计人口数目的宏观统计方法。它的优点是节约成本,缺点是所依据的数据资料有时残缺不全,结果影响人口数目估计的精度。线性回归模型利用行政记录资料和人口统计调查资料的相关性对人口数目进行估计。文章利用广西户籍人口变动资料,使用这两个模型估计广西2010年人口数目,并且对估计的结果进行了评价。
Population counts of census years and non-census years in Guangxi were attained through statistical survey. This approach is costly in both time and money. Then it requires us to explore other sources of population count. Administrative record is a good source. The methods to estimate population by means of administrative records data are demographic analysis model and linear regression model. Demographic analysis is a macro-level statistical method which uses population birth, death, immigration, emigration, and other data to estimate population. Its advantage is that it saves cost, and the disadvan- tage is that sometimes the data information are incomplete, which affects the accuracy of population estimates. Linear regres- sion model uses the relevance between administrative records and survey data to estimate the number of population.This article uses these two models to estimate population count in Guangxi 2010 based on domicile population data in Guangxi and evalu- ate the estimated results.
出处
《广西财经学院学报》
2011年第4期1-6,25,共7页
Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"我国人口普查质量评估方法研究"(10XTJ003)
全国统计科学重大项目(2009LD003)
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2010GXNSFA013107)
广西人文社会科学发展研究中心科学研究工程2010年度开放基金资助项目(KF2010021)
广西教育厅科研资助项目(201012MS110)资助
关键词
行政记录
人口统计分析模型
线性回归模型
administrative records
demographic analysis model
linear regression model
