摘要
本文在概括性描述我国金融发展的典型事实并重新构造度量指标的基础上,利用省级面板数据实证分析我国金融发展的决定因素,证实地方政府的财政收支行为对我国金融发展有显著的作用,其中财政赤字对经济货币化指标具有显著的正向影响,对重新构造的金融相关比率具有显著的正向作用,对以股票资产交易额衡量的资本市场发展指标具有显著的反向影响;而金融发展指标对经济增长的效应不显著,政府的扩张性支出行为驱动的金融发展即通过提高资本积累而不是资本效率促进经济增长,但这种增长的可持续性是不容乐观的。金融体系的进一步发展有赖于深化财政体制改革和创新公共融资模式。
This paper describes the typical facts of China’s financial development and re-constructs its measuring indexes, and then analyzes the determinants of financial development using China’s provincial panel data. The result shows that the revenues and expenditures of local governments were significantly correlative to the indexes of financial development. Hereinto, the local deficits were significantly positively related to the liquidity/GDP ratio and negatively related to the stock-trade-volume/GDP ratio, and significantly positively related to the financial interrelations ratio which is reconstructed to describe the situation of gross financial assets owned by households. The effects of financial development on economic growth are further tested to reveal that financial development driven by local governments’ expanding expenditure may contribute little to sustainable economic growth, as this type of financial development is a result of enhancing capital accumulation rather than improving capital efficiency.
出处
《金融评论》
2011年第3期19-28,123,共10页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
关键词
财政赤字
金融发展
资本积累
经济增长
Fiscal Deficit
Financial Development
Economic Growth
Capital Accumulation
