摘要
利用民政部统计核定的1978-2009年全国年度灾情数据,以及国家统计局发布的社会经济统计数据,从灾情指标的绝对量、相对量及其变异系数入手,分析了我国自然灾害的年际、年代际趋势变化和波动变化特征。结果表明:近30年来,我国自然灾害灾情年际和年代际变化趋势明显。总体上,死亡人口下降趋势明显,人口受灾情况、农作物受灾情况和直接经济损失上升趋势明显,但相对直接经济损失下降趋势明显,房屋倒塌比例也有所下降;1990年代,灾害造成的各项损失较之1980年代增大趋势明显。我国自然灾害的影响范围趋于相对稳定,而灾害强度波动性较大,且有增大趋势。灾情的趋势和波动变化特征,反映了全球气候变化下极端事件更加频发,强度有所增加的趋势。灾情指标的大小与年度主要灾害类型以及重灾年份有关。
Making use of the yearly statistics of natural disasters of China between 1978 and 2009 as arranged and ratified by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the socio-economic statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of natural disasters in China in terms of the absolute values and relative values of variation in disaster loss data and the fluctuation features of different indicators by adopting coefficients of variation are analyzed. Results indicate that： the interannual variation of different disaster loss indicators caused by natural disasters in China since 1978 is remarkable; Overall, the number of deaths caused by natural disasters has decreased remarkably, the number of collapsed and damaged houses has increased slightly, whereas a conspicuous rising tendency has been witnessed in the other major disaster loss indicators; since the 1980s, the interdecadal variation of disaster loss indicators caused by natural disasters in China, except number of deaths and number of collapsed and damaged houses, have all witnessed a rising tendency. There is a relatively remarkable interannual variation and fluctuation in terms of the intensity of natural disaster losses in China, but the fluctuation of the affected areas of natural disasters is relatively slighter. These variations of disaster loss indicators are mainly related to the main disaster types of each year and whether a year is a major disaster year or not. All the indicators have shown a rising tendency, except the number of deaths. The fluctuation of intensity-representing These facts reflect a more frequent rising tendency of the intensities of indicators has been relatively strong possibility of extreme events in the these extreme events. and has a tendency to become stronger. context of global climate change and the
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2011年第3期65-68,82,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"自然灾害救助应急预案的区域分异规律研究"(40801215)
关键词
中国
自然灾害
灾情
时间分布特征
灾情指标
China
natural disasters
disaster condition
temporal distribution characteristics
disasterloss indicator
