摘要
根据松花湖沉积物平均沉积速率,将松花湖沉积柱镉(Cd)和汞(Hg)元素质量分数实测数据进行线性插值,得到松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数变化的时间序列数据.运用灰色系统理论建模方法,采用1943-2006年时段数据,建立松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数演化的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型.残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验均表明,该模型精度较高,可用于松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数中长期预测.由预测结果可知,松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数有逐年缓慢递增趋势,虽然在短期内不会出现明显的Cd或Hg污染;但如果不采取及时有效措施,控制Cd和Hg的污染源,松花湖沉积物将有Cd、Hg污染不断加剧的风险.
From the average sediment rate of Songhua Lake,the time series data of Cd and Hg contents evolution were obtained by the linear interpolation of measured data.The GM（1,1） prediction model of Cd and Hg contents evolution was set up using data from 1943 to 2006.Residuals,posterior deviation and correlation tests indicated its high precision,thus the model can be used in long-term forecast of Cd and Hg contents.The predicted results showed that Cd and Hg contents had a slowly increasing trend year by year,although Cd and Hg pollution did not appear obviously in the short-term.But if effective measures of controlling sources of Cd and Hg pollution are not taken,the risk of Cd and Hg pollution in Songhua Lake sediment will increase.
出处
《深圳大学学报（理工版）》
EI
CAS
北大核心
2011年第4期368-372,共5页
Journal of Shenzhen University(Science and Engineering)
基金
中国地质调查局多目标生态农业地球化学调查项目(200414200003)~~
关键词
地球化学
GM(1
1)模型
重金属污染
镉
汞
沉积物
灰色模型
污染风险
松花湖
geochemistry
GM（1
1） model
heavy metal pollution
Cadmium（Cd）
Mercury（Hg）
sediments
gray model（GM）
pollution risk
Songhua Lake
