摘要
为了研究滦河流域未来百年(2010-2100年)不同排放情景下气候变化对径流的影响,利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式在3种排放情景下(A2高排放、A1B中排放、B1低排放)下所做的21世纪未来百年气候变化预估实验得到的数据,应用HBV模型对滦河流域进行了模拟研究,模型率定期和验证期的结果表明HBV模型在滦河流域具有很好的适用性。结合HBV模型和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式在3种排放情景下的百年气候变化预估数据,结果显示在3种排放情景下滦河流域百年平均径流深度相差不大,但变化趋势有较大不同,年际变化突出。整体而言,未来百年在3种情景下滦河流域的径流深度都将有不同程度的增加趋势,其中在B1低排放情景下,增加趋势显著;在周期方面,A2和A1B情景下,2-9年的年际变化周期较为明显,而在B1情景下周期不太明显。
Based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM mode,using the climate change forecast actual experimental data for the next century under three scenarios（A2 high emission,A1B emissions,B1 low emission）,this paper ap-plied HBV model to study the future of the Luanhe River Basin（2010-2100） under different scenarios of climate and runoff change.The result showed that HBV model had good practicability in the Luanhe River Basin.Using HBV model and predicted climate change data of the three emissions scenarios for the next century from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model,it is found that in the three emission scenarios,the average runoff depth of Luanhe River Basin will have little change in the next century,but the trends will be quite different and the annual varia-tion will be prominent.Overall,the depth of runoff in the Luanhe River basin will have varying degrees of in-creasing trend in the next century under the three scenarios,and it will have a significant increasing trend in sce-nario B1.There is a period of 2-9 years in scenarios A2 and A1B,while periodic change is not obvious in scenar-io B1.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第7期861-867,共7页
Progress in Geography
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2010-1)
河北省科技厅重点基础研究项目(08966711D)
河北省气象局科研开发项目(10ky16)
关键词
HBV模型
滦河
聚类分析
最大熵谱
HBV model； Luanhe River； cluster analysis technique； maximum entropy spectrum
