摘要
根据1995~2000年南宁市土地利用变更数据,计算得到南宁市全市土地利用结构的转移概率矩阵,运用Markov理论,模拟并检验2000年全市的土地利用结构,模拟值与实际值基本吻合,说明运用Markov理论预测南宁市的土地利用结构是可行的。在此基础上对南宁市2005、2010、2015和2020年的土地利用结构变化作预测。结果表明,在未来20年内,南宁市的农用地面积有所减少,园地增幅较大,林地面积减少;建设用地增长较快;未利用地减少,土地利用率提高。
Average transition probability matrix of land use structure in Nanning City has been calculated based on its land use change data from 19945 to 2000,this paper adopts Markov Chain,simulating and forecasting land use structure in 2003,the result is that value of simulation is identical to the actual condition,which tells us that using Markov Theory to forecast land structure is feasible.Then,the very model is applied to forecast the change of future land structure in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020 in Nanning.The conclusions show that in the future 20 years,cultivated land will decrease,garden land will have substantial increase and forest land will decrease.In this period,construction land will develop fast,unused land will decrease and the land usage ratio will increase.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第16期10017-10018,10024,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
