摘要
[目的]研究近38年沈阳沈北新区气候变暖对农业的影响。[方法]利用沈阳沈北新区1971~2008年气温资料,采用常规统计方法,分析了在气候变暖的环境下沈北新区气温、活动积温的变化趋势,并讨论了气候变暖对农业的影响。[结果]近38年来沈北新区年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温和稳定通过≥0℃、≥10℃活动积温均呈现明显的升高趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.4、0.3、0.1℃/10a和79.1、76.7（℃.d）/10a。最寒冷的12和1月呈下降趋势,其他各月均呈上升趋势。最高气温大于最低气温的升温幅度,夏季升温幅度大于冬季,这一分析结果与很多学者研究的结果有所不同。气温升高、热量资源增加农业复种指数提高,中晚熟品种栽培界限北移,设施农业迅速发展,同时也增加了旱涝灾害的风险和促进了病虫害的加重。[结论]该研究为提高气候变暖对农业生产影响的认识和增强当地农业生产适应气候变化的应变能力提供科学依据。
[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of climate warming on the agriculture in Shenbei New District of Shenyang in recent 38 years.[Method] Based on the temperature data in Shenbei New District of Shenyang during 1971-2008,by using the conventional statistical method,the variation trends of temperature and active accumulated temperature in Shenbei New District under the climate warming environment were analyzed,and the influence of climate warming on the agriculture was discussed.[Result] The annual average temperature,annual mean maximum temperature,annual mean minimum temperature and stably through ≥ 0 ℃,≥ 10 ℃ active accumulated temperatures in Shenbei New District in recent 38 years all showed the significant increasing trend,and the climate tendency rates were respectively 0.4,0.3,0.1 ℃/10a and 79.1,76.7（℃·d）/10a.They showed the decline trends in the coldest December,January,and all showed the rise trends in other months.The increasing range of maximum temperature was greater than that of minimum temperature,and the increasing range in summer was bigger than that in winter.The analysis result was different from the results of many scholars.When the temperatures rose,and the heat resource increased,the agricultural cropping index improved,and the cultivated boundary of late-maturing varieties moved northward,and the agricultural facilities developed quickly.Meanwhile,the risk of drought and flood increased,and the insect pest and plant diseases aggravated.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for improving the knowledge about the influence of climate warming on the agricultural production and strengthening the strain capacity of local agricultural production adapting the climate variation.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第16期9918-9920,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
沈北新区
气候变暖
农业
趋势变化
Shenbei New District
Climate warming
Agriculture
Trend variation
