摘要
从宏观经济层面分析影响我国城镇失业率的相关因素,采用全序列法对所采集的原始数据进行无量纲化处理。分别应用1978-2009和1990-2007年数据得出多元回归分析只适合对失业率的短期预测。最后根据预测模型得出结论扩大出口,减少进口有利于减少我国城镇登记失业率,多元回归预测只适合对城镇失业率进行短期预测。
This article analyzes the factors related to China＇s urban unemployment rate from macroeconomic level. And it also carries on non-dimensional treatments for original data collected in the way of non-linear sequence. We have found that multiple regression analysis just applies to short-term forecast of the unemployment rate by using datum from 1978 to 2009 and from 1990 to 2007 separately. At last, according to the prediction method, we come to a conclusion that it will help to cut down the registered urban unemployment rate in our country by expanding exports and reducing imports. So we can see that the prediction of multiple regression only adapts to short-term forecast.
出处
《长春大学学报》
2011年第4期50-53,共4页
Journal of Changchun University
关键词
城镇失业率
回归分析
全序列法
urban unemployment rate
regression analysis
complete sequence method
