摘要
基于Laspeyres完全分解技术测算了东部能源消费的变动并进行纵向与横向比较,结果表明:经济增长是推动区域能耗增长的主要因素,技术进步与结构调整对能源消费起到节约作用;其中,部门能源效率的提高是节能的主导因素,工业部门的结构比重与能源效率的微弱变动都会对整体节能产生很大的影响,其能源效率的提高是技术节能的主要原因;结构调整的短期节能效应并不明显,且呈阶段性变化的特征,根源在于高耗能产业投资效应与前期能源消费的提前透支及其滞后影响,产业结构效应弱化;最后给出了产业结构与能源结构优化、节能技术进步等方面的政策建议。
The energy consumption change in eastern part of China was calculated based on Luspeyres index complete decomposi- tion method, and accompanied with comparison between its vertical and horizontal aspects. The results indicate that economic growth is a main factor that pushes ahead with the increase of regional energy consumption, and technological progress and struc- tural adjustment play an important role in energy conservation. Meanwhile, improvement of the sector energy efficiency is the pre- dominant cause of energy conservation. Only very small changes in industry sector structure and energy efficiency could have great impacts on the whole energy conservation, among them, increasing energy efficiency is crucial to the technological conservation. It could also learn from results that short - time conservation effects of structure adjustment characterized by phase variation are not so obvious; the root is in the investment effects of high - resource dependent industries, earlier stage overdraft of energy consumption, ant its lag effects, which led to weaken the structural effects. Finally, some suggestions involving industrial structure adjustment, energy structure optimization, and energy eiticiency elevation, etc are given.
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期59-66,共8页
Science Research Management
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目"中国东部地区能源发展模式研究"(08JHQ0053)
起讫时间:2008.10~2010.10
江苏省社会科学基金重点项目"推进江苏新能源产业发展研究"(09EYA001)
起讫时间:2009.12~2011.12
关键词
结构变动
能源效率
经济增长
节能
因素分解
structural change
energy efficiency
economic growth
energy conservation
factor decomposition
