摘要
通过对常规气象资料、物理量特征和ECMWF、T639数值预报模式误差的分析,对2010年1月23日沿天山一带降雪过程以及乌鲁木齐市中量降雪漏报的原因进行了总结,发现这次过程ECMWF数值预报对于锋区上的弱系统预报能力较差,而T639模式预报较好。预报员过分依赖ECMWF数值预报是造成预报失误的主要原因。实践证明在短期天气预报过程中不能完全依赖数值预报产品,而应在有效检验的基础上结合其它信息全面分析。
Based on analysis of the characteristics analysis of the conventional data and physical quantity,and the error of ECMWF and T639 products,the reasons for missing forecast of snowfall process along Tianshan Mountains and the moderate snow in Urumqi on January 23rd,2010 were summarized.It was found that the forecasting capability of ECMWF numerical prediction was poorer than T639 for the weak system on frontal zone.The main reason for forecast error was excessive dependence on ECMWF numerical prediction model.The results showed that short-range weather forecast could not rely on numerical prediction models completely.We should analyze it generally in combination with other information on the basis of effective verification.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2011年第2期32-35,共4页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
降雪
漏报
原因分析
乌鲁木齐
snowfall
missing forecast
cause analysis
Urumqi
