摘要
本文借鉴国家信用评级的原理,提出确定市政债券合理发债规模的方法。选取地方政府信用最具代表性的指标,运用GA-PSO混合规划算法建立所选指标与地方政府信用等级的函数关系。根据地方政府的信用等级,确定地方政府的信用担保比例。然后将地方财政收入减去地方必要财政支出的净值乘以信用担保比例作为市政债券的担保资金,并将担保资金代入KMV模型,最终确定地方政府合理的发债规模。针对如何降低偿债风险的问题,提出三点建议。
With the theory of government credit rating,we propose the method of ensuring the reasonable issue volume of municipal bonds.We choose some of the most representative index which reflects the credit rating of local governments,and GA-PSO algorithm is applied to establishing the functional relations between selected index and local governments＇ credit rating.And credit guarantee proportion can be determined according to credit rating.The municipal bonds＇ guarantee fund is calculated by multiplying differentials between fiscal revenue and necessary fiscal expenditure with credit guarantee proportion,and substituting guarantee fund to KMV model,LGRIV is obtained.And then we propose three suggestions for reducing the default risks.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第5期29-35,共7页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073047)
