摘要
贵州喀斯特地区是典型的生态环境脆弱地区,人多地少矛盾突出,耕地资源安全问题日益引起学界重视。通过研究分析,剖析了仁怀市耕地资源安全态势。应用马尔科夫链预测方法,对仁怀市土地利用变化未来发展趋势进行了定量预测,结果显示:从2005年到2025年,仁怀市耕地面积共减少17177 hm2,年平均减少约687 hm2。到2025年仁怀市耕地总面积仅有33748 hm2,人均耕地面积0.04hm2,远远不能满足仁怀市农业生产的需要。为了实现仁怀市耕地安全,提出了具体措施。
The karst region in Guizhou is typically frangile.Where the contradiction of a big population and limited plow land stands out.The problem of cultivated land security is increasingly attracted academic attention.Through research and analysis,this paper analyzes the condition of the cultivated land resource security in Renhuai.And trend of land use dynamic changes in the year 2005 and 2025 were predicted by Markov Chain.Result showed that the cultivated land decreased by 17177 hm2,which had averagely decreased by687 hm2 per year.In 2025 there were 33748 hm2 cropland and the per capita area of cultivated land had been decreasing gradually by 0.04hm2 in 20 years,which Can not meet the needs of agricultural production in Renhuai.Finally,these measures in details for cultivated land security in Renhuai were figured out.
出处
《国土与自然资源研究》
北大核心
2011年第3期28-30,共3页
Territory & Natural Resources Study
关键词
喀斯特地区
仁怀
耕地安全
马尔科夫链
Karst area
Renhuai
cultivated land security
Markov chain
