摘要
中国是世界上粮食消耗最大的国家,随着社会经济的发展,中国的粮食安全备受全球瞩目。粮食安全的评估涉及众多因素,既有定量数据,又有定性信息。因此,为了全面地对中国的粮食安全进行预警,该文提出了一种基于信息融合的多因素粮食安全评估方法。新方法将各个信息源的定量定性信息转换为基本概率指派函数,利用层次分析方法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)确定各个属性的权重,基于Dempster组合规则实现了多因素的融合。依据1995-2007年的统计年鉴数据,对该文方法的有效性进行了验证。结果表明:该文所提出的信息融合方法能够正确客观地反映出粮食安全警度。
China is the largest food consumption country in the world.With the social and economic development,China＇s food security has become a global attention.Grain security research involves many uncertain factors：as well as quantitative and qualitative information.In order to get the grain security status comprehensively,we proposed a method to evaluate risk in grain security based on multifactor information fusion.In the method,the quantitative and qualitative information were used to construct the basic probability assignment,and the attribute weights was got based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process method.After that,the multifactor fusion results were got based on the Dempster combination rule.The effectiveness of the method was verified with a numeric example that the data comes from the yearbook of China in 2007.The Results show that the method is effective and can correctly reflect the grain safety warning degrees.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第5期183-189,共7页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(60874105)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-08-0345)
重庆市自然科学基金(CSCT
2010BA2003)
航空科学基金资助项目(20090557004)
上海交通大学"晨星学者计划"资助项目(T241460612)
上海市教育委员会重点学科建设项目(J50704)
"农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室"开放课题(2010-DAEW-01)
"智能计算与信息处理教育部重点实验室(湘潭大学)"开放课题(2009ICIP03)
上海交通大学博士生"三助"专项经费和研究生助管经费资助
关键词
信息融合
层次分析法
食品供应
粮食安全
预警系统
DS证据理论
information fusion
analytic hierarchy process
food supply
grain security
warning system
DS evidence theory
